Turn one finish date into a probability.
Monte-Carlo simulation over your real schedule network — triangular uncertainty, per-activity three-point overrides, 500 to 5,000 iterations — gives you P50/P80/P90 finishes, the probability of making the plan, and the activities that actually drive the risk.
Not just the project finish — the dates your client asks about.
P50 and P80 dates for the first eight open milestones, plus the probability of meeting the CPM date for the project as a whole.
Criticality index
How often each activity sat on the driving path across iterations — your watch list for the month, ranked.
Driving path
The deterministic driving path, traced through the CPM engine’s driver tracking — see which chain actually sets the finish.
The risk narrative
An auto-written paragraph explaining the distribution and its drivers — ready to paste into the monthly report.
Triangular uncertainty, tuned per activity.
Apply a global range or override any activity with its own three-point estimate. Simulations run 500 to 5,000 iterations, chunked with progress shown. Scheduling is day-granular — documented in Honest limits.